Costa Rica Gets Pupusa All Over Its Face

Last night’s 1-0 loss to El Salvador complicated Costa Rica’s 2010 World Cup bid. After the last two games, Costa Rica went from 1^st to 4^th, Honduras from 2^nd to 3^rd, Mexico from 4^th to 2^nd and the US went from 3^rd to 1^st. Whew! Too much juggling, but it is same pool of players in the CONCACAF Hexagonal. And, all of them still have a chance to make the 2010 World Cup. Remember, the top 3 teams earn automatic bids to the World Cup and the 4^th place team takes on the 5^th place CONEMBOL team (ouch!). The only thing separating 3^rd place from 4^th place is 1 point. And when all of the games are played, it could come down to goal differential to determine who is an automatic bid or who has to be slapped around by Argentina, Uruguay or Colombia.

Below are the current standings after last night’s games . . . .

CONCACAF Qualifying
	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
US	8	5	1	2	5	16
MX	8	5	0	3	3	15
HN	8	4	1	3	6	13
CR	8	4	0	4	-4	12
ES	8	2	2	4	-2	8
TT	8	1	2	5	-8	5

So, who will not earn an automatic bid for South Africa in 2010? Again, looks like Costa Rica by the slimmest of margins. Although they should earn at least 4 points in the last 2 games, so should Mexico and Honduras. These 3 countries play a “softy” in their final 2 games and they should get the valuable 3 points. The US should lose to Honduras and earn a point in a hard fought battle against CR in DC. Even though this game will feel like a home game for Los Ticos, it will not be enough to get them over the hump. And when it is all over, Costa Rica will have an acid reflux moment when it looks back to the El Salvador game they should have won or tied.

Below is what the final CONCACAF table should look like after the final games are played on October 14th . . . .

CONCACAF Qualifying
	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
MX	10	6	1	3	5	19
HN	10	5	2	3	7	17
US	10	5	2	3	4	17
CR	10	5	1	4	-3	16
ES	10	2	3	5	-4	9
TT	10	1	3	6	-9	6

Who knows, the last time I did this I thought Mexico would end up in 4^th place and now they are in the driver’s seat. Shows you what I know. Regardless, it will be exciting. Stay tuned and support the US!

Who's going to South Africa from CONCACAF?

Before we print Mexico’s ticket to South Africa after the win against the US, we need to remember there are other teams (very good teams) competing as well. Last night, Honduras pasted Costa Rica 4-0 and is now sitting pretty at 2^nd place. The US better start feeling the pressure or it too will be in a tight spot. The current CONCACAF table looks like the following (remember, the top 3 teams advance and the 4^th place team has a playoff with the 5^th place CONMEBOL team).

	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
Costa Rica	6	4	0	2	0	12
Honduras	6	3	1	2	4	10
United States	6	3	1	2	3	10
Mexico	6	3	0	3	-1	9
El Salvador	6	1	2	3	-2	5
T & T	6	1	2	3	-4	5

Here’s my prediction . . . . Mexico is playing well, but their recent victories were in front of pro-Mexico crowds. This will not be the case in Costa Rica and T & T. Mexico does not play well in T & T, and it will be the last match for T & T who should play the spoiler to Mexico’s automatic bid.

The US will struggle to earn two more victories in the next four matches. The biggest hurdles will come in the last two matches on the road in turbulent Honduras and at home against Costa Rica. The next two matches (El Salvador @ home and T & T on the road) are critical for the US and are their best chances to get victories. If they win these, they will go to South Africa. But like Mexico, this would require winning in T & T and the US does not play well there.

As of today, CONCACAF could be won by any of the top 4 nations. But each team is playing poorly away from home. Thus, the table stays the same and the US takes the coveted 3^rd place slot on goal differential. Mexico will play Colombia, Ecuador or Uruguay for a ticket to South Africa (my bet is on Uruguay advancing). So on October 14^th around 10PM EST after the final games are played, the CONCACAF table will look like the following . . .

	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
Costa Rica	10	6	2	2	3	20
Honduras	10	5	1	4	5	16
United States	10	4	3	3	4	15
Mexico	10	5	0	5	1	15
El Salvador	10	2	4	4	-6	10
T & T	10	2	4	4	-7	10