The Klinsmann Effect

Remember the excitement when Jurgen Klinsmann was hired as the Technical Director for the USMNT?  He used words like "style" and "development" to pump up fans.  He raised a banner, started a mission, and declared a World Cup Champion by 2018.  Confidence, skill and risk taking were to become the norm.  The future was unlimited!  He brought in young players with a mix of veterans.  He started kids in an adult sport.  The veterans were glorified as mentors.  The 2014 World Cup was a job well done.

Fast forward to October 2015.  The year stared well and only got better with victories over Holland and Germany in their countries.  Amazing!  How did they do it?  How did Jurgen do it?  Youth.  Yes, there were some veterans, but the youth came with hunger, strength and speed.  Were they more skilled than these teams? No.  They just had a little more something to prove.  As 2015 has gone, those two games were the highlights.  Unfortunately, 2015 continued.

Flaming out of the Gold Cup semifinals to Jamaica, quitting on the CONCACAF Cup to Mexico, and losing to Honduras in the semifinal Olympic qualifier are all evidence of Klinsi running his course or losing his mind.  I placed total blame on him in the Gold Cup and CONCACAF Cup since he picked those teams.  They were slow, old, and complacent.  The semifinal Olympic qualifier is his fault too since he is the Technical Director of the USMNT and its development.  He did not pick this team, but they are his coaches.

The excuses are that the USMNT now has no attackers, no skill, no reinforcements, no hope, and no leaders.  Sunil Gulati hired Jurgen and will hold on to his greatness from his playing days and will most likely not fire him.  They have both become so prideful with their past accomplishments that they forgot to prepare to win today's games.  The recent heartbreaking losses can be fixed easily and both would look like geniuses.  The solution is to go back to the youth.  Where are these players?  All over 2nd and 3rd divisions in Europe, South America and the MLS.  Unfortunately, the gaze of Klinsmann only makes it to the Bundesliga.

As his history has gone, he started younger players in 2011, resorted to veterans in tighter games, stopped developing / playing younger players, and now blames the players for not stepping up.  His finger pointing through the media will only demotivate players and lose the locker room.

His last stand starts today in a friendly against Costa Rica.  Please go back to playing the youth, take your lumps, grow stronger.  He did this with the German team in 2006 and 8 years later, these youngsters matured and won a World Cup in 2014.  World Cup qualifiers start in November against St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Trinidad & Tobago.  If Klinsi does not get wins in these two games, Gulati may need to pull the plug.

Euro 2012 - What We Know, Who Will Win

Ok, ok, I rolled the dice on picking Holland as a semi-finalist.  And yes, I thought either Russia or Croatia would be some nice dark horses.  But alas, I was wrong.  Where am I still alive with my picks?  Germany, Italy and Spain, as semifinalists, albeit they now match up differently.  So let's reconfigure and determine what happens next.  Below are my predictions for the rest of the Euro 2012.

Quarterfinals

Portugal vs Czech Republic
Thursday June 21th - I have this one going to penalty kicks.  And with Petr Cech manning with goal, I see the Czech Republic taking down Ronaldo and his crew.  There needs to be at least one Cinderella in the semifinals and Czech Republic is it.

Germany vs Greece
Friday June 22th - Germany will continue to control and win this match 3-1.  Greece has made it interesting by surviving Group A and knocking out the Russians, but thier run ends here.  Germany won the "Group of Death" with 3 wins and left little doubt of their dominance.

Spain vs France
Saturday June 23rd - Now, the drama begins.  This is the first if two intriguing matches for the quarterfinal weekend.  Spain seemed to toy and experiment with its infamous "Group of Debt" (included Ireland & Italy).  Fortunately, they handled the group well, but created some doubt of their previous dominance.  Del Bosque is convinced to overload the midfield while leaving his forwards on the bench.  Their 90-minute match of keep away has worked, but was suspect against Italy and Croatia.  Playing a slightly more efficient team (Germany) may spell curtains for this brilliant run.

France rose from its 2010 World Cup ashes, but only to fall back into them.  Their last match (2-0 loss to Sweden) showed why they leave us scratching our heads and second-guessing their legitimacy.  We could go on about them, but why?  It's France.  Spain wins this match with their usual hot potato prowess, 1-0.  The goal will be scored around the 80th minute.

England vs Italy
Sunday June 24th - This has the makings of a hunker-down, nail-biting, don't-be-the-first-to-blink classic.  Or, it may be England with 10 men camped in the box hoping for a miracle goal.  Both teams have played fairly consistent and still have something to prove.  Although I prefer to see England advance, Italy has too many intangibles.  If their back line and Buffon play as they have, then Italy advances.  If Rooney has a break out match, then England has a shot.  Otherwise, Italy wins 1-0.  Subplot - who loses their cool first, Rooney or Balotelli?  Their tempers may determine who wins, too.

Semifinals

Czech Republic vs Spain
Wednesday June 27th - The advantages the Czechs have are grittiness, two more days of rest than Spain, and Petr Cech.  But, that is where it ends.  Spain shows why it is the defending European and World Cup champion and wins 2-0.

Italy vs Germany
Thursday June 28th - The Germans will counter the Italian passion with effectiveness.  But the Italians make a run at it and keep the Germans in check.  But, Germany wins 2-1.

Final

Spain vs Germany
Sunday July 1st - In typical fashion, this will be a low-scoring, conservatively played affair.  One goal should win it, but both teams will score in regulation.  And as it appears, extra time comes closing in with Casillas licking his chops to win a cup via penalty kicks, yet he will miss the clincher at the 115th minute.  Germany wins 2-1.

Side Notes
Spain did not coast through their group.  Typically, champions have some humbling prior to the elimination matches.  Good for Spain, not for Germany. . . .  Teams coming from Groups of Death (and maybe the Group of Debt) do not fair well after group play.  So, do not be surprised if England, France, Greece and Czech Republic pull off some miracle wins. . . .  The years when Italy has had a match-fixing scandals, they win hardware.

Euro 2012 - Predictions

Everyone is saying how this will be the best Euro championship in its history.  I think there may be some great matches, but typical football will the norm and there will be plenty of 1-0 matches.  Will Spain repeat?  No. Will Poland or Ukraine advance from group play?  No.  Sadly, this is the world's greatest tournament since there are no lower tier teams are included and it does not live up to the hype.  Will there be a miracle run like Greece in 2004?  Can Ireland muster a win? Will France flame out, or rise from its 2010 World Cup ashes?  There are many questions and all will be answered soon as the matches begin today!  The question many are pondering is who will win Euro 2012?  My forecast has Holland vs Italy and Spain versus Germany in the semifinals and Germany beating Italy in the final.  If I were to put money down on this, it would be on Germany.  But, hedge your wager with some dark horses.  My long shot picks are Russia and Croatia.  I picked Russia due to their nasty history with Poland and Ukraine and unwelcome reception, which may fuel them to thumb their noses and will victories where they are unexpected.  Croatia is a solid team.  If they can draw with Italy and Spain and win against Ireland in group play, they could become this tourney's Cinderella.

Best of luck to all the nations and hope for a peaceful, beautiful tournament.

Qatar Ticket Farce

Below is Soccernet's link on an article not getting much play, but it should. I know I am stating the obvious, but FIFA has made a mistake. Check out the article. It will make you giggle to hear Qatari PR at work.

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story/_/id/873723/questions-remain-after-asian-cup-final-ticket-farce-in-qatar?cc=5901

My hope is that FIFA learns from this and votes again for the 2022 World Cup. The problem is that the President of the Asian Football Confederation, Mohamed Bin Hammam, who is from Qatar, will most likely be the Sepp Blatter successor. So, removing the World Cup from Qatar may be impossible.

Is it me, or does the 2022 World Cup graphic look like a ball going down a toilet swirl? Please wash your hands before returning to work, FIFA.

Asian Cup Recap and the State of the Union

What Goes Up, Must Implode . . . Uzbekistan was a smidge close to winning the 2011 Asian Cup in Qatar, but were routed 6-0 to Australia in a semi-final. Nice game for the Aussies, but the soccer gods do not like trounces. In the final, Japan beat Australia 1-0 to win the Asian Cup final. Besides, isn’t Australia its own continent? Do they really need to be in the Asian conference? Long live Oceania!

Attendance Numbers from the 2011 Asian Cup . . . The total available tickets to sell were 875,000; the total tickets sold = 405,361. That means about 46% tickets were sold. Not be “glass is half empty,” but a stadium that was 54% empty is pathetic. Look a lot Pizza Hut Park in August.

Asian Cup Final Controversy . . . Some 3,000-5,000 people traveled to Qatar with match tickets in hand to see the Australia-Japan final, but were turned away at the gates. The stadium was locked to protect the royalty. Also, a fireworks platform blocked one of the gates. So, 37,174 attended this match in a 50,000 seat stadium and they do not have any more room or another gate? Before kick-off, the organizers gave tickets to the workers to fill the seats, but paying supporters were informed that they were late (by 5 minutes). If there were an emergency at the stadium, this could have been a catastrophe. Fortunately, the Middle East is well-organized and there is nothing to fear. If a suicide bomber doesn’t get you, then desert will. To read more of this well-planned and comical event, go to: http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/news/_/id/6073683/asian-cup-ticket-holders-denied-entry-finale

Peace in Egypt? . . . The USMNT has a friendly with Egypt in Cairo on Wednesday February 9th (12:30PM EST). Considering the current state of Egypt, a visit by the USMNT may not be advisable. However, a football match could be the distraction Egypt needs. Or, it could be a leading of the lambs to the slaughter. I hope they reschedule after things have settled down. England, Ireland and Scotland are available on that date and would be a lot less stress on the Euro-based players.

USMNT – Chile Friendly . . . Yes, the US played recently and tied Chile 1-1. It was fairly sloppy, but a few flashes of potential for the young US squad. Thanks to Juan Agudelo drawing a penalty and Teal Bunbury converting it, the US salvaged the draw. These two will be interesting to watch considering how young and fast they are. My attention was on the left side duo of Brek Shea and Zach Loyd. I heard lots of grumblings of their play, but thought they both did well for at least another trial. Shea was in position most of the match and his service was good. Loyd reminded me of Freddie Hejduk at times – a gambler and a ball of barbed wire – tricky, but helpful. The left side for the US has always been an issue and no matter what these two do or anyone else, no one will be happy.

2011 Asian Cup Highlights (so far)

Yes, I am reporting on the Asian Cup hosted by Qatar where I will be for the 2022 World Cup. Why? There will be plenty of tickets available. So far, the highest attended game was the opener with Qatar versus Uzbekistan at 37,143 (Uzbekistan 2 - Qatar 0). The lowest attended was the 2-2 draw between China - Uzbekistan in group play match at an estimated 2,000 (probably less than 2K). The average match attendance for the 2011 Asian Cup has been around 11,000. I hope the 2011 Gold Cup has higher attendance than this. And second thought, MLS attendance does not seem so bad after all. Pack your bags for Qatar! 2022 has plenty of seats.

HOT OFF THE PRESS! 2011 Asian Cup - Uzbekistan beat Jordan 2-1 to advance to the semifinals to take on Australia. It will be Uzbekistan's first semi-final in the Asian Cup. In tomorrow's quarterfinals, Australia plays Iraq and Iran against South Korea. These should actually be good to watch. And with the Arabic countries losing today, I think they will win tomorrow. If they don't, the Cup attendance may dip below 10K since no one wants to watch some infidels play.

GOOD NEWS FOR QATAR - They advanced in the Asian Cup, which should increase their FIFA ranking from 115th in the world to 7th, just ahead of Italy. "Thus, their bid is legitimate," spoketh the Blatter (dressed in toga garb and motioning his thumb down to disqualify England and the US forever).

BAD NEWS FOR QATAR - They had 19,479 in attendance at their own quarterfinal match. What happen to the other 17,953 who came to the opener? I thought they have a stadium that seats 50K? Too many empty seats.

HUH? NEWS FROM QATAR - Qatar's squad has a Brazilian and an Argentinian. How is that possible? 1.5 million live in Qatar and just by chance a Brazilian man and an Argentinian man married Qatarian women? Dreams do come true in Qatar....

Between now and 2022, I will try to take the high road and dish out only positives about the imminent Qatar World Cup. I may slip and badger FIFA's voting and selection policies. And, I may fuss about the lack of scoring by US forwards. But remember - open seating in Qatar ... the man who builds his house on sand, will soon be homeless ... and, US defenders are a scoring threat!

AQUI ESTAN O ALLI ESTAN - With Qatar eliminated, I must pull for Uzbekistan! Something tells me this is their quadrennial! The winner gets a trip to Brazil in 2013 for the Confederations Cup! Sadly, most Asian Cup winners do not qualify for the World Cup in the next year. I have written "Uzbekistan" 7 times. I have nothing more to say.

World Cup soccer in South Africa: newyorker.com

World Cup soccer in South Africa: newyorker.com The New Yorker explores whether Americans hate soccer.

Thierry Henry: Meet the MLS 2010

Today will be the big media introduction in New York of the MLS' biggest signing since David Beckham: French striker Thierry Henry. As far as media events go, it won't hold a candle to the extravagant Los Angeles Galaxy welcome of Beckham. Given the failure of the overall Beckham Experiment, this is a good thing.

The timing of Thierry Henry's arrival to the media cosmos that is New York City would have been alright except for a couple of sports items from the last few days: 1.) The humiliating exit of France from the 2010 World Cup and 2.) The death (and corresponding media frenzy) of Yankees' owner and svengali: George Steinbrenner.

Major League Soccer had the right idea. This Henry signing has been in the works for over two years now. The month-long 2010 World Cup was going to be a temporary boost and would need to be followed very soon after with something to keep those Americans who watched the USA in South Africa at pubs across the country focused on soccer.

Henry's play here stateside will be far more indicative than any 100° MLS All-Star Game friendly against a European power like Inter Milan or Tottenham Hotspurs. If he leads the league in goals by the time the playoffs start, we'll know for certain what most people suspect - that the quality of play league-wide holds no candle against any of the main European leagues.

If he's less successful, it will be a dud locally for New York's Red Bulls - a club with a new Soccer-Specific stadium to attract fans to: Red Bull Arena (named after Bruce Arena?).  But something that the Red Bulls do have going for them: new, pre-economic downfall ballparks CitiField and Yankees Stadium that have out priced a lot of NY-area sports fans in these more dicey economic times. It's not quite the same thing that happened in Seattle with the loss of the NBA Supersonics and the hugely successful arrival of the Seattle Sounders FC. But it is a backlash trend that will further the MLS' popularity 14 years after its inception. After that whole LeBron James ego-fest that we all endured here stateside, soccer might be a nice balm for a lot of disappointed Knicks' fans.

All of this will be forgotten once the Jets and Giants begin their NFL season.

For Thierry Henry, after a difficult World Cup qualifying experience (Hand of Gaul against Ireland, anyone?) and a season on the bench in Barcelona, he will bask in the relative anonymity that he will experience on the road in places like Salt Lake City, Kansas City and Frisco, Texas. Pelé's soccer savior descendants continue their plight in the United States of American Football. Vive le fútbol.

360° Panoramic Shot of World Cup Fans in Munich park

URU vs. GHA Soccer World Cup 2010 (blue hour) in Olympic park

John Cleese rants - Soccer vs Football

You gotta love John Cleese. Here he has the cheekiness to tease USA about fútbol never having caught on in this country. (This after Monty Python's genius sketch of Famous Philosophers' Football match!)

The Best World Cup Calendar EVER

Marca.com World Cup Flash Calendar

Yours in sport,
Pablonius Monk

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 4):

1. Why England could win?

• Wayne Rooney. If he remains healthy, England is an incredible force.
• England is one of the hottest teams and overdue for an appearance in the championship match.
• They play the US. In 6 out of a 8 World Cups, when other teams played the US, they did the following:

• 6 Semi-Finalists
• 5 Finalists
• 3 Champions

2. Why England won’t win?

• No European team has won the championship outside of Europe.
• No team has won the World Cup with a foreign born coach.
• Rooney has a gimpy hamstring and has a history of getting injured in big tournaments. He may get England to the Final, but he will not play in it.
• England will glide through group play with 3 victories. Almost all World Cup champions should have a tie or a loss before entering single elimination – more on this later.

3. Why not Brazil or Spain?

• High expectations do not hold up in the World Cup. These two continue to flip flop the #1 ranking by FIFA. This is a kiss of death.
• Recent success does not continue. Spain won the 2008 European Championship. Brazil won Confederations Cup in 2009 and Copa America in 2007. The odds are against this to continue. Interesting note, when Brazil loses in Copa America to Argentina, it goes on to win the World Cup. This trend holds true for when Argentina loses to Brazil; they too go on to win the World Cup. Brazil beat Argentina in the 2007 Copa America.
  
• Group play troubles. Brazil is in the “Group of Death” and no team wins the Cup from this proclaimed group. It will be over-tested and may lead to injuries. Spain is in one of the softest groups and will not be tested and will have their customary early exit by the quarterfinals.

4. So who wins? Argentina. Why?

• They are the LEAST likely best team to advance to the Final. The recent trend is that the best team who is written off first, wins. In 2002, the press hounded Brazil for the 1998 Final and the lack of organization coming into the tourney. Result: Brazil won. In 2006, Italy was the whipping boy for their match fixing controversies and lack of player diversity since their squad was Serie A players only. Result: Italy won.
• The experts are picking Spain, Brazil, Holland, England and Germany. None are picking Argentina. They are picking Lionel Messi to win the Golden Boot. For this to happen, Argentina must go deep. DUH!
• Ideal group play. Argentina will be tested enough to keep their confidence and hunger in check. As a top flight team, you do not want to dominate too much and you don’t want to play weak either. Brazil in 2002 struggled against Turkey and Italy stumbled against the US in 2006, but both became cohesive units from those matches. Argentina will experience the same battle this year against Greece. It will be ugly, but it will help Argentina in the end. Key stat: 14 of the 16 World Cup Champions had either a tie or a loss in group play before winning it all (there are 18 champions and two tournaments did not have group play).
• The Copa America trend continues. The team who loses America wins Mundial.
  
• Least injured team.

5. Final Score: Argentina 3 - England 1

6. Expectations for future World Cups:

• Italy plays in championship matches every 12 years. It wins the World Cup every 24 years. Next championship appearance 2018.
• Brazil hosts and wins the World Cup in 2014 (beating France).
• England hosts and wins the Cup in 2018 (beating Italy).
• US hosts and wins the Cup in 2022 against Germany.

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 3):

1. Who advances from the groups?
Group (1st, 2nd)
A. France, Mexico
B. Argentina, South Korea
C. England, Slovenia
D. Germany, Serbia
E. Holland, Cameroon
F. Italy, Paraguay
G. Brazil, Portugal
H. Spain, Honduras

2. Why so few African teams advancing? Historically, an African team does not advance in the next Cup it plays in, but at least one African team advances. That means pick South Africa, Algeria or Cameroon to advance. I choose the best of those 3 although South Africa is tempting. But betting against Mexico not advancing from group play is like not picking Duke to the Sweet 16. The host nation has always advanced, but I would not hold my breath.

3. Why Honduras? Honduras, Chile and Switzerland will all lose to Spain and then will all tie each other for a 2-point logjam. Honduras advances on goal differential thanks to a Carlos Pavon goal scored on Spain and will be the only goal scored on Spain in group play. Besides, at least 1 CONCACAF team has to advance and if Mexico and the US do not, then VIVA HONDURAS!

4. Beauty matches in Round of 16:

• Argentina vs. Mexico
• Spain vs. Portugal

5. Beauty matches in the Quarterfinals (all of them – these all look like championship matches!):

• France vs. England
• Holland vs. Brazil
• Argentina vs. Germany
• Italy vs. Spain
• Fantasy Quarterfinal Match: Mexico vs. US – if the US beats Germany and Mexico beats Argentina. But, it is fantasy. One may happen, but not both.

6. My Semi-Final Matches:

• England vs. Brazil
• Argentina vs. Spain

7. My Pick for the Final:

• England vs. Argentina

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 2):

1. How will the US fare in the 2010 World Cup? The US is in a tougher group than most realize. Below is what to expect from the Group C competitors:

· Slovenia: In qualifying, Slovenia survived against Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Russia by posting 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses and allowing .62 goals. Their strength is their defense. The US-Slovenia match will feature the US attacking, but with little success. Rewind to Guatemala and El Salvador matches the US encountered in the past 2 years. The US churned these out and came ahead. The differences between Slovenia and GUA or ELS are European experience and discipline. This should be a great match, but will be a hard fought draw.

· Algeria: This team is being labeled as a mystery team. How? 3 of their players are on the same club teams as the US players and the most of the rest play in the same Euro leagues as other US players. What is puzzling about Algeria is which team will show up? In qualifying, they did not lose at home going 6-0-0. On the road and including the African Nations Cup in Jan 2010, they won 3, drew 3 and lost 5. Their highlight was defeating Ivory Coast 3-2 in a quarterfinal. Their lowlights were a group stage loss to Malawi 3-0 and a semi-final 4-0 thrashing by Egypt. If Algeria shows up determined to make a statement, then the US may be in a world of hurt (see 2006 Ghana vs. US). I see the US winning this game 2-1.

· England: This team will easily win this group. Capello has them clicking and they are currently a force. What happens in the US-England match? England wins 3-1. Historically, England starts World Cups on high octane. The first 15 minutes will be nervy for both sides, but a goal by the 20^th minute settles the Brits down and they methodically paste the US. The US will get a junk goal late. This match should resemble the recent Holland-US friendly – no surprises. If the US starts sharply, controls the midfield and plays defense with authority, then it may draw. But since only one of these three may happen, England wins.

2. How many points will the US earn, and will they advance? The US will earn 4 points, but will not advance. Although this is a good US Team, they are too sloppy. The difference will be Slovenia’s tight defense. They will limit the goal scoring against the US and England. Back in Sep 2009, Slovenia lost to England at Wembley 2-1. I think this will be a similar result. The killer for the US will be the England match. Losing 3-1 would contribute to the US’s elimination. A 2-1 loss to England and a 3-1 win over Algeria would advance the US. The US snuck into the 2^nd rounds in the ’94 and the ’02 World Cups and the 2009 Confederations Cup on the slimmest of goal differentials. The tactic of earning 4 points and hoping for someone else to bail you out will eventually back fire. Here’s how Group C will end in the 2010 World Cup:

	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD	Points
England	3	0	0	9	2	+7	9
Slovenia	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
USA	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4
Algeria	0	0	0	1	8	-7	0

3. So, the US will fare better than it did in 2006, but it will not advance out of the group stage. I hope I am wrong. Unfortunately, the US defense is inconsistent. They take too long to clear balls and hope to send some brilliant long pass that usually gets intercepted. If the US is to advance, then they will need to be aggressive and gritty on every play. They need to keep teams on their heels. If the US scores first against Slovenia, it must continue to pressure, or it will not advance. The US must win ugly. If it hopes for lucky bounces, then it is done. It must step up, challenge, tackle, and sacrifice. The question for the US is does it have the will to win? It has some skill, but it must want to win and show it. So much like Algeria, which US team will show up? Talk is cheap, don’t be a be chump. Go USA!

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 1):

1. ESPN has done well to prepare the masses for the 2010 World Cup. I have enjoyed their walks down memory lane. But I have to ask myself, “Am I qualified to write about the soccer?” The credentials of their soccer crew state that they’re huge soccer fans and have watched a lot of matches. I’ve done that! So, I must be qualified! But, they’re also employed by Disney, which means 2 people may read this. The only difference between me and them is that I played NAIA soccer my freshmen year between class and keg parties. My other credential is that I picked the last 3 out of 4 World Cup winners. 1998 was an anomaly. Regardless, thank you ESPN for your World Cup coverage.

2. Who’s on the Underdog Radar?

• Teams with a natural disaster since their last World Cup appearance. These are Chile, Greece, Honduras and Paraguay. The town of Concepción, Chile was leveled by 8.8 earthquake in Feb 2010. Greece – their economy is in the toilet. In 1998, Honduras was destroyed by Hurricane Mitch. Paraguay lost it best striker Salvador Cabañas to a gun shot wound to the head in Mexico City in Jan 2010. Although Paraguay has numerous good players, he was their captain. Paraguay's President issued a national day of mourning for Cabañas, and he’s still alive! Didn’t see Obama issue this for Davies after his car accident. Oh, how engaged we are. Regardless, these nations will be playing with another level of national pride. When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.

• Teams politically or religiously motivated. This would include North Korea and Algeria. The only problem for North Korea is that they will be the whipping boy in the Group of Death that features Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast. North Korea may earn a draw and eliminate an over-confident Ivory Coast team. Algeria will unite with Muslim pride to test the US (the great Satan). Also, the US has historically fared poorly against Muslim countries in the WC. Don’t forget Zinedine Zidane is Algerian descent, so there is no shortage of talent. Besides, Algeria knows a thing about upsetting teams in the WC (beat West Germany 2-1 in 1982).

3. How much does group play matter?

• Top Flight teams want to be tested. Getting a draw in group play or an ugly win will lead to cohesion. Brazil in 2002 struggled against Turkey. Italy in 2006 battled against the US. Both teams got stronger, and never looked back. Top Flight teams who run up the score and go undefeated will lose by the quarterfinals. See – England and Spain.

• If you’re a middle of the road team (the US), then you hope to score and limit your opponents to fewer goals. DUH! It all comes down to goal differential.
  

• If you are a bottom dweller, then pray for a draw or a miracle goal that will inject your nation with pride. This lone goal scorer will eventually become President or Dictator of his country.

4. Teams love to play the US! In 4 out of the last 5 World Cups, teams that played the US did the following:

• 4 advanced to the Semi-Finals
• 3 to the Finals
• 2 eventual champions

This may be good news for England. And if the US advances to the Round of 16, it may be good news for Germany. Play the US, go far in the Cup! I hate this stat.

Costa Rica Gets Pupusa All Over Its Face

Last night’s 1-0 loss to El Salvador complicated Costa Rica’s 2010 World Cup bid. After the last two games, Costa Rica went from 1^st to 4^th, Honduras from 2^nd to 3^rd, Mexico from 4^th to 2^nd and the US went from 3^rd to 1^st. Whew! Too much juggling, but it is same pool of players in the CONCACAF Hexagonal. And, all of them still have a chance to make the 2010 World Cup. Remember, the top 3 teams earn automatic bids to the World Cup and the 4^th place team takes on the 5^th place CONEMBOL team (ouch!). The only thing separating 3^rd place from 4^th place is 1 point. And when all of the games are played, it could come down to goal differential to determine who is an automatic bid or who has to be slapped around by Argentina, Uruguay or Colombia.

Below are the current standings after last night’s games . . . .

CONCACAF Qualifying
	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
US	8	5	1	2	5	16
MX	8	5	0	3	3	15
HN	8	4	1	3	6	13
CR	8	4	0	4	-4	12
ES	8	2	2	4	-2	8
TT	8	1	2	5	-8	5

So, who will not earn an automatic bid for South Africa in 2010? Again, looks like Costa Rica by the slimmest of margins. Although they should earn at least 4 points in the last 2 games, so should Mexico and Honduras. These 3 countries play a “softy” in their final 2 games and they should get the valuable 3 points. The US should lose to Honduras and earn a point in a hard fought battle against CR in DC. Even though this game will feel like a home game for Los Ticos, it will not be enough to get them over the hump. And when it is all over, Costa Rica will have an acid reflux moment when it looks back to the El Salvador game they should have won or tied.

Below is what the final CONCACAF table should look like after the final games are played on October 14th . . . .

CONCACAF Qualifying
	GP	W	D	L	GD	Points
MX	10	6	1	3	5	19
HN	10	5	2	3	7	17
US	10	5	2	3	4	17
CR	10	5	1	4	-3	16
ES	10	2	3	5	-4	9
TT	10	1	3	6	-9	6

Who knows, the last time I did this I thought Mexico would end up in 4^th place and now they are in the driver’s seat. Shows you what I know. Regardless, it will be exciting. Stay tuned and support the US!