Thursday, August 13, 2009

Who's going to South Africa from CONCACAF?

Before we print Mexico’s ticket to South Africa after the win against the US, we need to remember there are other teams (very good teams) competing as well. Last night, Honduras pasted Costa Rica 4-0 and is now sitting pretty at 2nd place. The US better start feeling the pressure or it too will be in a tight spot. The current CONCACAF table looks like the following (remember, the top 3 teams advance and the 4th place team has a playoff with the 5th place CONMEBOL team).



GP

W

D

L

GD

Points

Costa Rica

6

4

0

2

0

12

Honduras

6

3

1

2

4

10

United States

6

3

1

2

3

10

Mexico

6

3

0

3

-1

9

El Salvador

6

1

2

3

-2

5

T & T

6

1

2

3

-4

5


Here’s my prediction . . . . Mexico is playing well, but their recent victories were in front of pro-Mexico crowds. This will not be the case in Costa Rica and T & T. Mexico does not play well in T & T, and it will be the last match for T & T who should play the spoiler to Mexico’s automatic bid.


The US will struggle to earn two more victories in the next four matches. The biggest hurdles will come in the last two matches on the road in turbulent Honduras and at home against Costa Rica. The next two matches (El Salvador @ home and T & T on the road) are critical for the US and are their best chances to get victories. If they win these, they will go to South Africa. But like Mexico, this would require winning in T & T and the US does not play well there.


As of today, CONCACAF could be won by any of the top 4 nations. But each team is playing poorly away from home. Thus, the table stays the same and the US takes the coveted 3rd place slot on goal differential. Mexico will play Colombia, Ecuador or Uruguay for a ticket to South Africa (my bet is on Uruguay advancing). So on October 14th around 10PM EST after the final games are played, the CONCACAF table will look like the following . . .



GP

W

D

L

GD

Points

Costa Rica

10

6

2

2

3

20

Honduras

10

5

1

4

5

16

United States

10

4

3

3

4

15

Mexico

10

5

0

5

1

15

El Salvador

10

2

4

4

-6

10

T & T

10

2

4

4

-7

10