Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 2):

1. How will the US fare in the 2010 World Cup? The US is in a tougher group than most realize. Below is what to expect from the Group C competitors:

· Slovenia: In qualifying, Slovenia survived against Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Russia by posting 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses and allowing .62 goals. Their strength is their defense. The US-Slovenia match will feature the US attacking, but with little success. Rewind to Guatemala and El Salvador matches the US encountered in the past 2 years. The US churned these out and came ahead. The differences between Slovenia and GUA or ELS are European experience and discipline. This should be a great match, but will be a hard fought draw.

· Algeria: This team is being labeled as a mystery team. How? 3 of their players are on the same club teams as the US players and the most of the rest play in the same Euro leagues as other US players. What is puzzling about Algeria is which team will show up? In qualifying, they did not lose at home going 6-0-0. On the road and including the African Nations Cup in Jan 2010, they won 3, drew 3 and lost 5. Their highlight was defeating Ivory Coast 3-2 in a quarterfinal. Their lowlights were a group stage loss to Malawi 3-0 and a semi-final 4-0 thrashing by Egypt. If Algeria shows up determined to make a statement, then the US may be in a world of hurt (see 2006 Ghana vs. US). I see the US winning this game 2-1.

· England: This team will easily win this group. Capello has them clicking and they are currently a force. What happens in the US-England match? England wins 3-1. Historically, England starts World Cups on high octane. The first 15 minutes will be nervy for both sides, but a goal by the 20^th minute settles the Brits down and they methodically paste the US. The US will get a junk goal late. This match should resemble the recent Holland-US friendly – no surprises. If the US starts sharply, controls the midfield and plays defense with authority, then it may draw. But since only one of these three may happen, England wins.

2. How many points will the US earn, and will they advance? The US will earn 4 points, but will not advance. Although this is a good US Team, they are too sloppy. The difference will be Slovenia’s tight defense. They will limit the goal scoring against the US and England. Back in Sep 2009, Slovenia lost to England at Wembley 2-1. I think this will be a similar result. The killer for the US will be the England match. Losing 3-1 would contribute to the US’s elimination. A 2-1 loss to England and a 3-1 win over Algeria would advance the US. The US snuck into the 2^nd rounds in the ’94 and the ’02 World Cups and the 2009 Confederations Cup on the slimmest of goal differentials. The tactic of earning 4 points and hoping for someone else to bail you out will eventually back fire. Here’s how Group C will end in the 2010 World Cup:

	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD	Points
England	3	0	0	9	2	+7	9
Slovenia	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
USA	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4
Algeria	0	0	0	1	8	-7	0

3. So, the US will fare better than it did in 2006, but it will not advance out of the group stage. I hope I am wrong. Unfortunately, the US defense is inconsistent. They take too long to clear balls and hope to send some brilliant long pass that usually gets intercepted. If the US is to advance, then they will need to be aggressive and gritty on every play. They need to keep teams on their heels. If the US scores first against Slovenia, it must continue to pressure, or it will not advance. The US must win ugly. If it hopes for lucky bounces, then it is done. It must step up, challenge, tackle, and sacrifice. The question for the US is does it have the will to win? It has some skill, but it must want to win and show it. So much like Algeria, which US team will show up? Talk is cheap, don’t be a be chump. Go USA!