Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 3):

1. Who advances from the groups?
Group (1st, 2nd)
A. France, Mexico
B. Argentina, South Korea
C. England, Slovenia
D. Germany, Serbia
E. Holland, Cameroon
F. Italy, Paraguay
G. Brazil, Portugal
H. Spain, Honduras

2. Why so few African teams advancing? Historically, an African team does not advance in the next Cup it plays in, but at least one African team advances. That means pick South Africa, Algeria or Cameroon to advance. I choose the best of those 3 although South Africa is tempting. But betting against Mexico not advancing from group play is like not picking Duke to the Sweet 16. The host nation has always advanced, but I would not hold my breath.

3. Why Honduras? Honduras, Chile and Switzerland will all lose to Spain and then will all tie each other for a 2-point logjam. Honduras advances on goal differential thanks to a Carlos Pavon goal scored on Spain and will be the only goal scored on Spain in group play. Besides, at least 1 CONCACAF team has to advance and if Mexico and the US do not, then VIVA HONDURAS!

4. Beauty matches in Round of 16:

• Argentina vs. Mexico
• Spain vs. Portugal

5. Beauty matches in the Quarterfinals (all of them – these all look like championship matches!):

• France vs. England
• Holland vs. Brazil
• Argentina vs. Germany
• Italy vs. Spain
• Fantasy Quarterfinal Match: Mexico vs. US – if the US beats Germany and Mexico beats Argentina. But, it is fantasy. One may happen, but not both.

6. My Semi-Final Matches:

• England vs. Brazil
• Argentina vs. Spain

7. My Pick for the Final:

• England vs. Argentina

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 2):

1. How will the US fare in the 2010 World Cup? The US is in a tougher group than most realize. Below is what to expect from the Group C competitors:

· Slovenia: In qualifying, Slovenia survived against Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Russia by posting 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses and allowing .62 goals. Their strength is their defense. The US-Slovenia match will feature the US attacking, but with little success. Rewind to Guatemala and El Salvador matches the US encountered in the past 2 years. The US churned these out and came ahead. The differences between Slovenia and GUA or ELS are European experience and discipline. This should be a great match, but will be a hard fought draw.

· Algeria: This team is being labeled as a mystery team. How? 3 of their players are on the same club teams as the US players and the most of the rest play in the same Euro leagues as other US players. What is puzzling about Algeria is which team will show up? In qualifying, they did not lose at home going 6-0-0. On the road and including the African Nations Cup in Jan 2010, they won 3, drew 3 and lost 5. Their highlight was defeating Ivory Coast 3-2 in a quarterfinal. Their lowlights were a group stage loss to Malawi 3-0 and a semi-final 4-0 thrashing by Egypt. If Algeria shows up determined to make a statement, then the US may be in a world of hurt (see 2006 Ghana vs. US). I see the US winning this game 2-1.

· England: This team will easily win this group. Capello has them clicking and they are currently a force. What happens in the US-England match? England wins 3-1. Historically, England starts World Cups on high octane. The first 15 minutes will be nervy for both sides, but a goal by the 20^th minute settles the Brits down and they methodically paste the US. The US will get a junk goal late. This match should resemble the recent Holland-US friendly – no surprises. If the US starts sharply, controls the midfield and plays defense with authority, then it may draw. But since only one of these three may happen, England wins.

2. How many points will the US earn, and will they advance? The US will earn 4 points, but will not advance. Although this is a good US Team, they are too sloppy. The difference will be Slovenia’s tight defense. They will limit the goal scoring against the US and England. Back in Sep 2009, Slovenia lost to England at Wembley 2-1. I think this will be a similar result. The killer for the US will be the England match. Losing 3-1 would contribute to the US’s elimination. A 2-1 loss to England and a 3-1 win over Algeria would advance the US. The US snuck into the 2^nd rounds in the ’94 and the ’02 World Cups and the 2009 Confederations Cup on the slimmest of goal differentials. The tactic of earning 4 points and hoping for someone else to bail you out will eventually back fire. Here’s how Group C will end in the 2010 World Cup:

	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD	Points
England	3	0	0	9	2	+7	9
Slovenia	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
USA	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4
Algeria	0	0	0	1	8	-7	0

3. So, the US will fare better than it did in 2006, but it will not advance out of the group stage. I hope I am wrong. Unfortunately, the US defense is inconsistent. They take too long to clear balls and hope to send some brilliant long pass that usually gets intercepted. If the US is to advance, then they will need to be aggressive and gritty on every play. They need to keep teams on their heels. If the US scores first against Slovenia, it must continue to pressure, or it will not advance. The US must win ugly. If it hopes for lucky bounces, then it is done. It must step up, challenge, tackle, and sacrifice. The question for the US is does it have the will to win? It has some skill, but it must want to win and show it. So much like Algeria, which US team will show up? Talk is cheap, don’t be a be chump. Go USA!

Observations, Predictions and Pitfalls for the 2010 World Cup (Pt 1):

1. ESPN has done well to prepare the masses for the 2010 World Cup. I have enjoyed their walks down memory lane. But I have to ask myself, “Am I qualified to write about the soccer?” The credentials of their soccer crew state that they’re huge soccer fans and have watched a lot of matches. I’ve done that! So, I must be qualified! But, they’re also employed by Disney, which means 2 people may read this. The only difference between me and them is that I played NAIA soccer my freshmen year between class and keg parties. My other credential is that I picked the last 3 out of 4 World Cup winners. 1998 was an anomaly. Regardless, thank you ESPN for your World Cup coverage.

2. Who’s on the Underdog Radar?

• Teams with a natural disaster since their last World Cup appearance. These are Chile, Greece, Honduras and Paraguay. The town of Concepción, Chile was leveled by 8.8 earthquake in Feb 2010. Greece – their economy is in the toilet. In 1998, Honduras was destroyed by Hurricane Mitch. Paraguay lost it best striker Salvador Cabañas to a gun shot wound to the head in Mexico City in Jan 2010. Although Paraguay has numerous good players, he was their captain. Paraguay's President issued a national day of mourning for Cabañas, and he’s still alive! Didn’t see Obama issue this for Davies after his car accident. Oh, how engaged we are. Regardless, these nations will be playing with another level of national pride. When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.

• Teams politically or religiously motivated. This would include North Korea and Algeria. The only problem for North Korea is that they will be the whipping boy in the Group of Death that features Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast. North Korea may earn a draw and eliminate an over-confident Ivory Coast team. Algeria will unite with Muslim pride to test the US (the great Satan). Also, the US has historically fared poorly against Muslim countries in the WC. Don’t forget Zinedine Zidane is Algerian descent, so there is no shortage of talent. Besides, Algeria knows a thing about upsetting teams in the WC (beat West Germany 2-1 in 1982).

3. How much does group play matter?

• Top Flight teams want to be tested. Getting a draw in group play or an ugly win will lead to cohesion. Brazil in 2002 struggled against Turkey. Italy in 2006 battled against the US. Both teams got stronger, and never looked back. Top Flight teams who run up the score and go undefeated will lose by the quarterfinals. See – England and Spain.

• If you’re a middle of the road team (the US), then you hope to score and limit your opponents to fewer goals. DUH! It all comes down to goal differential.
  

• If you are a bottom dweller, then pray for a draw or a miracle goal that will inject your nation with pride. This lone goal scorer will eventually become President or Dictator of his country.

4. Teams love to play the US! In 4 out of the last 5 World Cups, teams that played the US did the following:

• 4 advanced to the Semi-Finals
• 3 to the Finals
• 2 eventual champions

This may be good news for England. And if the US advances to the Round of 16, it may be good news for Germany. Play the US, go far in the Cup! I hate this stat.